Chapter 1: The Era of Technological Deceleration

Are we on the brink of a new Dark Age?

Photo by Micheile Henderson on Unsplash

The COVID-19 pandemic has taught us that circumstances can shift dramatically at any moment. What once seemed like a distant reality—rampant unemployment, authoritarianism, and widespread illness—has become our present reality.

The Rise of Technopoly

When we consume content about the future, whether through blogs, documentaries, or other outlets, there's a recurring theme: advancements in self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, and even futuristic brain implants. Most of these discussions suggest a future characterized by increased speed, intelligence, and abundance.

Predicting the Future

This outlook isn't surprising. Our attempts to forecast the future often involve projecting current trends into the future. Historically, we've experienced significant growth, which has led us to anticipate a continuation of this acceleration. However, this assumption overlooks the unsustainable nature of such growth, as evidenced by various data trends.

The Fuel of Growth: Oil

The expectation of limitless growth on a planet with finite resources raises serious questions. As highlighted by the Club of Rome in the 1970s, there are "Limits to Growth." A publication from the 1980s encapsulated this notion succinctly, emphasizing that humanity must reconcile its pursuit of economic expansion with the reality of resource limitations and the needs of future generations.

We are already witnessing these limits, particularly in 2020, which marked a significant turning point where apocalyptic scenarios appeared increasingly plausible. Nations worldwide scrambled for dwindling resources, igniting tensions in regions like the Middle East and beyond. Ecologically, we saw the devastation of forests due to extreme droughts and soaring temperatures, while cities faced catastrophic flooding.

The Historical Context of Societal Collapse

For centuries, human advancement was minimal when compared to today's standards. Progress often followed a cyclical pattern rather than a linear one.

#### The Dark Ages and Civilizational Collapse

The historical analysis of empires, such as that by Glubb Pasha, reveals patterns of rise and decline. The Bronze Age Collapse serves as a poignant reminder of this cyclical nature.

#### Peak Oil: A Looming Concern

In February 2021, Royal Dutch Shell announced that its oil production had peaked in 2019, acknowledging the necessity to transition away from fossil fuels. This shift reflects a broader understanding among technological leaders that peak oil is not just a theoretical concept but a looming reality.

Understanding Peak Oil

The concept of peak oil raises critical questions about our dependency on fossil fuels and its implications for societal stability.

#### Why Societies Fail

Societal collapse, characterized by the disintegration of cultural identity, socioeconomic complexity, and governance, can be precipitated by various factors such as natural disasters, conflict, disease, famine, and depopulation.

As we navigate these challenges, it seems we are ticking off numerous warning signs. However, there's a stark contrast between the concerns raised by experts and the optimistic projections put forth by futurists.

The Great Slowdown of 2018

The technological landscape has shown signs of stagnation, prompting inquiries into what happens when progress falters.

The Necessities of Life

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs illustrates that the foundation of human existence is food, which has become increasingly reliant on a steady flow of fossil fuels. Historically, disruptions in food supply have been a catalyst for social unrest.

Interestingly, major tech companies—particularly those invested in AI—are now emphasizing green energy and the end of fossil fuel dependency. This shift appears to be a desperate measure for survival, akin to a cornered animal seeking an escape.

Machines mirror humanity's vulnerabilities; as long as technology persists as a parasitic force, consuming resources without adding real value, it risks being eliminated through evolution—much like previous civilizations.

Chapter 2: Analyzing the Future

The first video, "AI Acceleration vs. Deceleration: A False Dichotomy?" featuring Samuel Hammond, delves into the contrasting views on the pace of technological growth and its implications for society.

The second video, "On My Mind #19: The Stagnation of Technological Progress," reflects on the potential stagnation in technological advancement and its impacts on our future.