Chapter 1: The Role of Intuition in Decision Making

At times, relying on your instincts can lead you astray.

According to Christina Gravert, an associate professor of economics at the University of Copenhagen, relying solely on common sense does not guarantee favorable outcomes. She advocates that the best strategy for achieving success in both personal and professional realms is to rigorously question and evaluate your foundational beliefs. This concept was highlighted in her recent TED talk, where she shared compelling examples.

One notable case involved a global initiative named “Scared Straight,” which aimed to deter at-risk youth from criminal behavior by exposing them to prison life. In a unique approach, researchers conducted a study involving a control group where some teens experienced a “time-out” at home instead. Although the program seemed logical, the findings were surprising.

“Rather than reducing criminal activity, it actually led to an increase,” Gravert stated. The unintended rise in criminal behavior resulting from this initiative could impose significant financial burdens on governments and taxpayers.

This scenario is not isolated. The film "Moneyball," featuring Brad Pitt, tells the true story of Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team, who revolutionized the sport. By employing an analytical method known as sabermetrics for player scouting, Beane departed from traditional intuition-driven practices. Initially met with skepticism, his strategy ultimately led to consistent victories, transforming the landscape of baseball scouting.

Another example is Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. In his book, "Principles," Dalio outlines three core beliefs that guide his life and work, one of which emphasizes the importance of complete transparency. He stresses the need for radical honesty with oneself and others.

“The greatest tragedy is clinging to false beliefs,” Dalio remarked. He recounted a personal experience where he relied on his instincts for an investment decision that nearly jeopardized his firm, resulting in potential losses for his clients and layoffs among his staff.

Dalio attributes his remarkable success to the practice of critically analyzing and inviting others to challenge his instincts and assumptions. “Pain plus reflection equals progress,” he noted. While some view Dalio’s methods as extreme, the effectiveness of his approach is evident in the success of his company.

Sylvia, a futurist and author of "Go to Sleep Late: And Other Advice for Night Owls," invites you to explore these ideas further.

Chapter 2: Moving Forward with Confidence